How long until solar panels pay for themselves at your home?
Real production for 51 states and D.C. from NLR PVWatts v8, July 2026 electricity prices from the U.S. EIA, and your own numbers. No sign-up, no phone number, no installer calling you.
First-year savings
$1,580
Payback
12.5 years
25-year net gain
$27,028
Return (IRR)
6.9%
Production vs. use by month
9,950 kWh/yr produced · covers 40% of your use directly · 42% of output used on the spot.
Which size pays off best?
Same usage and prices, only size changes. Best 25-year net gain: 8 kW.
| kW | Cost | Year-1 savings | Payback | 25-yr gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | $9,000 | $677 | 13.5 years | $10,155 |
| 4 | $12,000 | $903 | 13.1 years | $14,373 |
| 5 | $15,000 | $1,129 | 12.8 years | $18,591 |
| 6 | $18,000 | $1,354 | 12.6 years | $22,810 |
| 7 | $21,000 | $1,580 | 12.5 years | $27,028 |
| 8 | $24,000 | $1,667 | 13.0 years | $29,936 |
| 10 | $30,000 | $1,667 | 15.7 years | $24,455 |
| 12 | $36,000 | $1,667 | 18.2 years | $18,455 |
Solar production by state
Yearly kWh from each kW of south-facing panels at a 20° pitch.
- 1. New Mexico1,779 kWh/kW
- 2. Arizona1,755 kWh/kW
- 3. Nevada1,753 kWh/kW
- 4. California1,677 kWh/kW
- 5. Hawaii1,622 kWh/kW
- 49. Oregon1,128 kWh/kW
- 50. Washington1,088 kWh/kW
- 51. Alaska922 kWh/kW
Before you get a quote
- How many solar panels do I need? Sizing from your electric bill
A step-by-step way to size a home solar system from your annual kWh, daytime use and local sunshine, with real size-vs-payback tables for four states.
- Is solar still worth it without the 30% federal tax credit?
The 30% federal solar credit is gone for new systems. We ran payback for every state without it, and compared it with what the credit used to do.
- Net metering vs. net billing: how export credits change payback
How much your utility pays for exported solar power can add years to payback. We compare full, half and quarter-retail credits in every state.